Gail Sheehy :: Gail on Politics

As a contributing editor to Vanity Fair since 1984, Sheehy has written character studies of dozens of national and world figures, including George Bush, Al Gore, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Bob and Elizabeth Dole, Mikhail Gorbachev, Margaret Thatcher, Saddam Hussein, Anwar Sadat, Newt Gingrich, and Gary Hart.

MEET THE PRESS
May 14, 2000, Sunday

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MR. RUSSERT: Well, welcome all. Rudy Giuliani vs. Hillary Clinton, maybe. This is today's New York Daily News: " Rudy tells columnist, 'Pray for me.' Skips campaign speech, fuels doubt about Senate run." And The New York Post: "Gathering storm: GOP leaders outraged over Rudy's behavior. Post poll voters say he's losing stature." Susan Molinari, you're a longtime friend, supporter of Rudy Giuliani.

MS. MOLINARI: Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT: Is he going to run for the Senate?

MS. MOLINARI: Nobody knows at this point. I've talked to the mayor's staff as late as yesterday. They are still waiting for him to come to a decision. And he should have an announcement this week as to what type of cancer treatment he is going to pursue. And then shortly thereafter, we'll find out what's on the mayor's mind. He has asked during this very troubling time that everybody just sort of sit tight, allow him to pursue some very difficult decisions that are necessary for him to save his life. And then thereafter, take account of where he is politically, with his family. And I think that's all very reasonable. And it's just a matter of days that he's asking for, and I think we should give him that.

MR. RUSSERT: Trying to run New York City; two children, 14 and 10...

MS. MOLINARI: Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT: ...marriage in disarray, fighting prostate cancer, a new very good friend in his life and a potential Senate run. That's an awful lot of pressure on a human being.

MS. MOLINARI: Well, it sure is. It sure is. There's no doubt about it. I would like to say, however, that I think if there is one person in the United States of America who can handle that pressure and rise to that challenge, and, in fact, may be spurred on by all that pressure and challenge, it's Mayor Giuliani. He's done an outstanding job in New York City and always seems to do better and is tougher and stronger than anyone ever gives him credit for. So don't count him out just yet, Tim.

MR. RUSSERT: Gail Sheehy, you wrote 12,000 words in Vanity Fair, "The Hillary- Rudy Smackdown," it says here. What's your sense of all this? MS. SHEEHY: Well, I think we're seeing a man in the throes of a mid-life mortality crisis. I mean, for the first time in his life, he's facing a foe he can't put in jail, he can't fire. He has set himself up as a moral pillar and I think that pillar is in collapse. In addition to this profound cancer crisis, which was the disease that killed his father, he also has a profound morality crisis. This is a man who came out of Catholic boy's schools in the '50s and '60s, who has set himself to defeat evil, who told me 10 years ago, "I never cheat on my inner code," who has cheated on his wife and who is flaunting another woman who really doesn't seem to show a lot of concern about young children who are caught in the middle of this very public wars of the Giulianis. And I think as a Catholic man, who apparently hasn't gone to church in recent months, he's been using his mayoral lectern as a public concessional. I think he's filled with guilt, turmoil. And it further elucidates what many Republicans told me from my article, which is, "This is a man who is, at this point, psychologically unstable."

MR. RUSSERT: I did see him at Cardinal O'Connor's funeral, so he was in church participating in the Mass.

MS. SHEEHY: Well, I think all public officials go to funerals. He wouldn't take his wife, however, which is what apparently precipitated her tearful news conference.

MR. RUSSERT: Peter King, you're a product of Catholic boy's schools, as we say. You also clerked with Rudy Giuliani way back when. What's your sense?

REP. KING: I would say that if it was anybody else besides Rudy, he'd be out of it by now, but he's very unpredictable. I mean, Rudy is determined or pigheaded, depending on how you want to look at. He always does the unusual. And, as Susan said, if anyone could hang in there, it's Rudy Giuliani. If I had to bet, though, with all of this weighing on him, it is going to be tough personally to stay in but I would never count Rudy Giuliani out. He can be counted on to do the unexpected.

MR. RUSSERT: What has this done to him politically?

REP. KING: Well, it certainly hasn't helped. And it's probably taken away some of the intensity factor as far as his support, but again, it could be a long way to November. If somehow he can get this in order, if he can get a clean bill of health from his doctors, if the marriage problems recede into the background, it's possible by Labor Day, this'll once again be a Rudy vs. Hillary war and a lot of this will be in the background. But it's tough. But again, if anyone can do it, it could be Giuliani.

MR. RUSSERT: Bill Kristol is a veteran political observer. Your sense of this.

MR. KRISTOL: Well, this is more Gail Sheehy's world than my world. You know, this is psychology not politics at this stage. I think he won't run. I talked to one of his top aids yesterday and after the obligatory three minutes of, "He hasn't made up his mind." And, "Certainly if he wants to run, he can run and will run and would win," we had a longer discussion about resumes and the use of active verbs and, you know--so I don't think his own staff thinks he's going to run. I think he'll get out today or tomorrow.

The funny thing is the New York Post poll today, John Zogby's poll, shows that this has not hurt him much yet. Mrs. Clinton's ahead, I think, 42 percent to 39 percent. Only 15 percent of New York voters say that this diminishes their chance of voting for Giuliani. Eight percent say they're more likely to support him. I'd like to meet those 8 percent.

MR. RUSSERT: Friends of yours, Kristol?

MR. KRISTOL: Well, yes, I grew up with many of them on the Upper West Side, I
think, yeah.

MR. RUSSERT: Let me show you Rudy Giuliani in his own words--this was his news conference on Wednesday--and give everyone a chance to react to it.

(Videotape, from Wednesday):

MAYOR RUDY GIULIANI (Republican, New York): No. You know, I don't really care about politics right now. I'm thinking about my family, the people that I love, and what can be done that's honest and truthful and that protects them the best. I'm not thinking about politics. Politics comes at least second, maybe third, maybe fourth, somewhere else. It'll all work itself out some way politically. Of course this is damaging and painful and very, very difficult for everyone. It's very, very difficult for me. It's very difficult for my family. It's very difficult for all the families that are involved in it, but you have to deal with it honestly and directly. You can't pretend or hide. My emotional state is I'm very sad and I feel terrible.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT: Susan Molinari.

MS. MOLINARI: Well, I think bravo, Rudy. You know, yes, you're going through a lot. And instead of rising up there and having this canned press conference, saying, "Everything is going to be fine. And we're just great and we're moving, you know, full speed ahead and nothing's happened and the country's going to forgive us or the state's going to forgive us or whatever." He's saying, "I'm in pain. I've got a lot of things I have to take into account. I am human." And we all know he can still do the job. I mean, you know, he is given the latitude of people not looking to say, "Can he do the job?" We know that based on what he's done as mayor of the city of New York, he can do any job he sets his mind to and he can do it better than just about anybody else. But right now, he is being human and saying, "Yes, there are some things I have to work myself through," and I say good for you. Good for you for being honest to say "This is a difficult time in my life." Don't we want that out of elected officials?

MS. SHEEHY: You know, he didn't really want this job. And that one Republican after another told me that for my Vanity Fair story. And he never wanted to run for Senate. He did it on a dare. "Can you beat her?" He wants to run for governor. I mean, the job's taken, but it won't be in a couple of years. So I think he's been a man divided against himself, even before all of this came out. Now, he actually admits he's in a midlife crisis. He said, "When you're going through it, I don't know that you're able to describe it. You just try despite all the pain and difficulties and emotion. You try to grow from it." And I think he can grow from it. We are now seeing the two sides of this Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde coming together: You know, the mean-spirited, paranoid, angry man and the very human, emotional, frightened man coming together in a display of real humanity. But I don't think that that's somebody
who can run for a very tough Senate race at this point.

MR. RUSSERT: Several observers have pointed out that in the situation of President Clinton, Mrs. Clinton stood by him and that meant a lot to the public. In this situation, indications that, according to Donna Hanover, she was not warned that he was going to announce a potential separation. And she then cast other allegations against her own husband.

MS. SHEEHY: Right. Well, for three years, you know, she's been absolutely close-mouthed. She has not bad-mouthed the mayor, even though she was humiliated and desperately sad by his previous affair with his communications director, who managed to intimidate the press, and that's why none of this came out about his present girlfriend until he and Mrs. Giuliani began fighting the Giuliani wars on the steps of dueling press conferences.

MR. RUSSERT: Peter King, what do Catholics think of this situation politically?

REP. KING: Well, unfortunately, Catholics are becoming more and more like everybody else, and they've probably lost some of their, you know, moral edge that they like to have over the years. But, again, it's going to hurt Rudy. It's going to hurt him in, you know, the Catholic neighborhoods. It's going to hurt him among those people who went to the Catholic schools in the '50s and '60s. But, again, if he stays in, by November, a lot of that could diminish. I'd like to comment on something Susan said, though, about--show the human side of Rudy and maybe that is going to help him. What struck me about that, though, is Rudy has made a point never to show his human side before...

MS. MOLINARI: Yes.

REP. KING: ...so that's really what struck me the most by that news conference. Yes, he was appealing. He did come across as a real human being, but he's made a career out of saying, "I'm not that type of guy." You're never going to see that side of Rudy Giuliani. So, again, it may help him politically, but just as a one-on-one, I was really struck. I had never seen that side of Rudy Giuliani before.

MR. RUSSERT: Bill Kristol.

MR. KRISTOL: Yeah. Some of us liked Rudy a lot because we never saw his human side. I think--I don't know. This has been a decade of midlife crises by our leading politicians--the president of the United States, the speaker of the House. I think we could do without a midlife crisis now in the New York Senate race.

MS. MOLINARI: Well, except in fairness to the mayor, a lot of this has been brought to light and a lot of the fragility of what you're seeing right now has less to do with his, "self-defined midlife crisis" than his mortality scare. And I think we should all give him a little more breathing space than that with regard to that.

MR. RUSSERT: We're going to take a quick break and come back and talk about what if Rudy doesn't run, who will? And how concerned are national Republicans that Hillary Clinton may now have free pass? A lot more right after this.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT: We're back. Bill Kristol, how concerned are the Republicans at the national level that Hillary Clinton may, in fact, be a United States senator?

MR. KRISTOL: Well, it's not something most Republicans welcome, a prospect they're really thrilled about. I'd say the Republicans I've talked to in the last three or four days are split. Some think you need someone of real stature who already has a 100 percent name ID in the state, like Rudy Giuliani, to take on Mrs. Clinton. But a lot of smart Republican strategists think: Look, Peter King here or Rick Lazio or Jack Quinn or any normal sort of moderate or mostly normal--Right?--normal moderate, moderately conservative Republicans could run well against her. John Zogby's done a bunch of polls matching up Mrs. Clinton against Republicans who are much less well-known. Her vote does not go up. She beats Giuliani 42-to-39. Against someone like Peter King, she beats him 42-to-32, something like that because people know Pete less well. But the truth is, she may have to seal it around 42 or 45, and it may be that the less controversial Republican who could also get the conservative party line would run better against Mrs. Clinton.

MR. RUSSERT: Peter King, if Rudy Giuliani does not run for the Senate, will you?

REP. KING: Yeah, I certainly intend to. If he drops out of the race, I certainly intend to pursue the nomination, yes.

MR. RUSSERT: Well, you give up your House seat?

REP. KING: Well, if that's what it takes, I would, sure. I mean, the convention's only in two weeks, but I would do all I could to get the nomination. And I wouldn't have to give up the House seat to get the nomination in May, or if I got the nomination, yes, then I would give up the House seat.

MR. RUSSERT: If you didn't get the Republican Party nomination or the preference by the convention...

REP. KING: Right.

MR. RUSSERT: ...would you run in the primary?

REP. KING: I think it's almost impossible for anyone to afford a primary because you have to raise all the money for the primary. And if you win it on September 15th, you'd only have six weeks to raise the remaining $ 15 million to $ 20 million. It'd be very difficult to do. But besides the Republican line, I would have a very good shot at the conservative right-to-life and Independent parties, the only one who could get all three of those.

MR. RUSSERT: You are the only one who could get that?

REP. KING: As far as I know, there's no one else in the running who'll get the right-to-life line.

MR. RUSSERT: If Rudy Giuliani does not run, other than Peter King, who just announced...

REP. KING: Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT: ...who else would run?

REP KING: Certainly Rick Lazio would be a very strong candidate. George Pataki would obviously be a strong candidate. Ted Foresman, the multitrillionaire from New York, is also being looked at. Bill mentioned Jack Quinn. Jack would be--your hometown of Buffalo--a very strong candidate.

MR. RUSSERT: Susan Molinari.

MS. MOLINARI: You know, again, at this point, I just think everybody should just sort of sit on their hands and give the mayor the few days that he's asked for to come to that decision. And clearly, discussions are taking place. But I think those have got to be done at a time when it's appropriate with regard to the mayor.

MR. RUSSERT: Would you consider running?

MS. MOLINARI: No. Not at this point in time.

MR. RUSSERT: How about your husband, Bill Paxon?

MS. MOLINARI: If Bill's listening right now, no, not at this point in time.

MR. RUSSERT: If the mayor decides not to run, who would be the strongest Republican candidate?

MS. MOLINARI: You know, I hate to have this conversation because I feel that it's so tremendously disloyal to the mayor to even have this conversation, so I will only take this as far as to say that I think it's clear and obvious that Governor Pataki would be the strongest candidate at this point in time, although he has indicated that he has absolutely no intention of running for the seat.

MR. RUSSERT: And assuming that Governor Pataki does not run, how hard would it be for the other candidates to raise the $ 15 million, $ 20 million necessary?

MS. MOLINARI: You know, that is clearly a significant indicator. Mayor Giuliani has about $ 19 million in the bank right now and has showed no sign of stopping with regard to his capabilities of money-raising. I agree with Bill, though. I think every poll has shown that Mrs. Clinton has hit a ceiling. I think that any one of our candidates out there with an appropriate campaign, with a united Republican Party team, can beat Mrs. Clinton. I still stand very firmly by the fact, though, that Rudy Giuliani, despite all that he has gone through, if his health and whatever treatment that he determines to take allows him to get out there and let the people know him as I do and many of us around the table, he is still the strongest candidate and still will beat Mrs. Clinton.

MR. RUSSERT: Gail Sheehy.

MS. SHEEHY: Well, I think it's almost impossible for Rudy Giuliani to run. He's going to have three months' worth of treatment. We now think that he's going to have the surgical option. But it would seem to me that the party would put tremendous pressure on Governor Pataki to take up the heroic rescue because he would really be a formidable candidate against Mrs. Clinton. And I know this is a grave crisis for her, having Rudy Giuliani drop out. I mean, this is--he was the best thing that happened to her because the focus was on the volatility of his personality. And she was beavering away upstate, beginning to really make progress. Governor Pataki--a Republican who's won twice in a Democrat state, who has a real record to match against her rather spotty record, very mild-mannered, but confident--I think he'd be a tremendous challenge.

MR. RUSSERT: What are your impressions of Hillary Rodham Clinton as a candidate so far?

MS. SHEEHY: Well, surprisingly, after following her for three months--she started off back in January being really a poor candidate. She'd--one mistake after another, more accident prone even than the mayor in some case. But she actually has learned a lot in the last several months. She actually gets down and goes to truck stops and goes to diners. And she's even learned to leave a tip, you know. You know, she's really been connecting with voters, remaking herself once again. And now as the good mother, good daughter, good suburban wife, you know, help mate who lives next door who cares about issues that you do, presenting herself as bringing the woman's point of view to the Senate, representing gun legislation, protection for children, equal pay, etc. And I think she's, you know, learning the job.

MR. RUSSERT: Peter King, how would you run against Hillary Rodham Clinton?

REP. KING: By saying she's not showing a rationale, why she should be the senator from New York. Also, the fact that her type of liberalism is really the 1960s liberalism, which is out of touch...

MR. RUSSERT: How so? On what issues?

REP. KING: Education. She is just locked in totally with the teachers union, refuses even to consider any type of voucher experimentation. We can go right down the line. She is tied in with the--you know, she's made this commitment, really. To get the nomination, she had to prove she was a hard New Yorker. To do that, she went to the most over-the-line elements in the Democratic Party to show that she was one of them. And I think she'll be locked into that. Certainly, the health-care proposal would still be around her neck. And I think someone such as myself or Governor Pataki or Congressman Lazio could reach into traditional Democratic neighborhoods, the Irish and Italian voters. We could make inroads, I believe, among some of the building trade unions. In my case, I'd look for the John McCain supporters to be with me. So I think--I agree with Gail. I think Hillary Clinton was planning on running totally against Rudy's personality. Rudy's probably going to run against Hillary's personality. With the Rudy personality, if it is out--I agree with Susan--it does sound sort of ghoulish talking about this--but assuming that he does drop out of the race, that's--it takes away, really, the whole rationale for her candidacy.

MS. MOLINARI: Well, let's get back to something that I'd like to say, and that is, you know, over the last few weeks we've spent a significant amount of time, obviously, on focusing on Mayor Giuliani and Mrs. Clinton. It has really sort of appeared almost as a personality rather than delving into the issues that she's discussing at her various appearances. I believe that once we get back on track in one way or another--within the next few weeks, the Republican Party's going to get back on track--Mrs. Clinton and her policies become the issue again, and I think, you know, we're starting to sail towards a victory in November.

MR. RUSSERT: Where do you see her vulnerable? What is she, Susan Molinari?

MS. MOLINARI: On all her issues. When she has a capability or an opportunity to talk beyond the "Yes, I care about education." When you start to get into exactly what changes she would make in the educational system, when you talk about health care, just about any issue that she discusses when she has to talk about it in terms of implementation is where she can get into trouble with New York voters. I still believe that she also--and I agree with Peter, I think one of her number one vulnerabilities is she has still not come to New York and explained to New Yorkers why New York? Why this year? Why does she feel this burning passion that she cannot be--not a national figure, but a senator from the state of New York?

MR. RUSSERT: Bill Kristol.

MR. KRISTOL: I think Gore's ahead about 15 points in New York, which presumably will help Mrs. Clinton.

MS. MOLINARI: Right.

MR. KRISTOL: On the other hand, Peter won re-election in '96 when Bill Clinton won New York by 15 points. Rick Lazio won re-election in '96. I think they need to get ticket splitters who will vote for Gore and then come over and vote for the Republican. And I think those two candidates can do it. I actually disagree that Pataki is a stronger candidate. I mean, right now more people know him so they think he's stronger. But the truth is, Peter or Rick would both be very strong candidates against Mrs. Clinton.

MR. RUSSERT: Because the issue, in your mind, would then be Hillary as opposed to Rudy.

MR. KRISTOL: Yeah. Well, it would be a moderately conservative Republican against the liberal Democrat which is a close call in New York. Probably the liberal Democrat has a little bit of an edge, but she's not from New York, if I can get back to sort of simple-minded fact here. And I do think New Yorkers would rather--prefer that their senator be from New York, all things being equal.

MR. RUSSERT: Why does Hillary Clinton energize national Republicans so much, a ready pool of money? What is it about her that generates such passion?

MR. KRISTOL: Well, I think they think she doesn't deserve to be senator from New York for one thing, but also Republicans would like to see an end to the Clinton-Gore years. There are two ways to end the Clinton-Gore years: defeat Al Gore and defeat Hillary Clinton. I think defeating Al Gore is rather more important for the future of the country but Republicans would be happy if both happened.

MR. RUSSERT: Gail Sheehy, why does Hillary Clinton generate such passion for and against?

MS. SHEEHY: Oh, it's a multilayered--you know, she's seen as an aggressive woman who has used her association with the president to screw up health care, for instance, and to make her own Senate candidacy. I think a lot of professional woman feel that she has ridden the coattails of this man and hasn't really paid her dues as, for instance, Congresswoman Nita Lowey, who was really in place to run. There's a lot of envy of her and there's a lot of fear of her, particularly by white males, I think. But I would love to ask a question to Congressman King because when I interviewed him for my article in Vanity Fair, I asked him if you weren't a conservative Republican. Sounds like you might consider Hillary Clinton as your candidate because you called Rudy the psycho.

REP. KING: You asked between the two personalities. I said I'd seen the dark side of Rudy and I'd seen the dark side of Hillary. Also in the story, though, I also quoted my sister saying I'm also a psycho. She put Rudy and I in the same camp, so...

MR. RUSSERT: Sisters are always right.

MS. SHEEHY: But you said you're nice. You're more charming.

MR. RUSSERT: Peter King, you voted against the impeachment of the president.

REP. KING: Right.

MR. RUSSERT: Do you think that will hurt you with the Republican base?

REP. KING: It may hurt with the base, but it may give me more support among the Independent voters. I never excused his conduct. I just said, "I did not think it met the constitutional standard." As far as congressman in New York, I probably voted against the Clinton administration as much or more than anyone.

MR. KRISTOL: He can make up for voting against impeachment by defeating Hillary Clinton.

MR. RUSSERT: Gail Sheehy, Susan Molinari, Hillary Clinton has said that she will serve a full six-year term if she's elected, said she won't run for president if Al Gore loses. You take her at her word?

MS. SHEEHY: Oh, yes, I do. No, I think she's very committed to a six-year term. She'd have to to prove herself. She needs to have a real record. But, you know, Rudy Giuliani always wanted to run for president, too. He was telling his high school sweetheart that he used to rehearse, calling himself, you know, Rudolph William Lewis Giuliani, the first Catholic American president to run for the presidency. So, you know, I think it's an unfair--is there a senator who doesn't think they would have, could have, should have been president?

MS. MOLINARI: No. But it doesn't come from that, Gail; it comes from the fact that this woman just decided to sort of drop down into New York from Washington, D.C., not Illinois, not Arkansas, New York. And that's why there's a lot of skepticism because, as we said, she's never really come to New York and said, "This is why. You know, I really feel close." When she tries to, nobody really buys it. You know, in New York, the Yankees...

MS. SHEEHY: That's one thing she'll never be. She'll never be a New Yorker.

MS. MOLINARI: Which is why people then have to look at her and say, "Then there's got to be something that has to do with more national ambition because..."

MS. SHEEHY: Just like Giuliani. Just like everybody.

MS. MOLINARI: Well--but Giuliani has been mayor of the city of New York. He's
worked in New York.

MR. RUSSERT: So, Susan Molinari, you see Hillary Clinton running for

president if she wins the Senate seat?

MS. MOLINARI: I have not. You know, I don't get into that kind of guessing, but I'm saying that's why it's so logical that people don't see her attached to the Senate seat. It was something she never talked about. It's something we never saw in her, and we still don't know why New York, why now.

MR. RUSSERT: Bill Kristol, Gore vs. Bush. All the economic factors: unemployment down 3.9 percent; crime down; 20 million new jobs; the economy's roaring; and, yet, George W. Bush is still ahead of Al Gore. Counterintuitively, I know you're a Republican, but what's going on?

MR. KRISTOL: Oh, it's totally counterintuitive. I used to teach political science and any political scientist given these objective facts would say Gore should be ahead and Gore will win. He might win. He might be able to ride the economy and overcome Bush's lead the way Vice President Bush did in 1988 over Dukakis. People don't seem to want to vote for Gore, though. It's really startling. We're talking about the alleged Million Mom March, among moms, mothers with children, Bush is ahead 15 points over Gore.

MR. RUSSERT: Why?

MR. KRISTOL: People don't want to vote for Gore. They want some ch--I do think--I was struck by this, I think they really do want--they prefer all things being equal not to send a signal that everything's been great in the last eight years. Clinton, no problem, elect his vice president. When a vice president runs to succeed a president, if you elect him, you are in a sense vindicating his presidency. Bush won Reagan's third term. I don't think voters want to give Clinton a third term. If Bush can convince them that he'll change some things, but keep the economy going in a sensible way, I think, all things being equal, voters prefer Bush.

MS. MOLINARI: Well, and also George W. has done something that Republican candidates, particularly on a national level, or at least in the national arena, have not been very good at doing, and that is sort of speaking the compassionate conservative talk, emphasizing issues that are important to women and mothers--education, the health care, Social Security--even, you know, parlaying an initial discussion with regards to some elements of gun control. So I think that he is receiving a significant amount of appreciation from people out there who like to see that face of the Republican Party.

MR. RUSSERT: To be continued. Thank you all. And we await Rudy Giuliani's decision. We'll be right back with our MEET THE PRESS Minute: the ever colorful, always controversial, former Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards.

END